Summary Q4 2025
Irish Economy
Quarterly National Accounts data shows Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) growth accelerated through Q3 2025, rising 5.1% year-on-year, driven largely by a sharp increase in multinational investment. A 42% surge in investment in modified intangibles and higher aircraft investment boosted MDD, while consumption growth remained modest. For the first three quarters of 2025, MDD grew by 4.1%, outpacing other indicators of domestic activity. Employment, domestic sector output, and the Central Bank’s Business Cycle Indicator point to slower underlying growth, highlighting the one-off nature of recent investment-driven gains.
Global Economy
The global economy remains resilient, supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates and supply-chain adjustments, though elevated tariffs and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook. Euromonitor forecasts global GDP growth to moderate to 3.0% in 2026, with advanced economies slowing and emerging markets remaining relatively stronger despite trade headwinds. Global inflation is expected to ease further in 2026, with elevated pressures persisting in the US, near-target inflation in the Eurozone and continued deflationary forces in China.
Insolvencies
Based on PwC data, Irish corporate insolvencies remained well below expectations in 2025, with 848 cases recorded versus a projected 1,500, despite inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. Retail and hospitality insolvencies declined year-on-year, while examinerships doubled, highlighting a shift toward court-protected restructuring. Rising unemployment remains a key risk for future insolvency trends, even as multinational activity continues to support overall economic stability.
Housing Market
MyHome reports, Ireland’s housing market entered a more measured phase as 2025 ended, with Q4 national asking price inflation steady at 5.4% and bidding levels easing from summer peaks. Despite tight supply, rising residential completions supported competitive market behaviour, and early indications suggested price growth would increasingly align with wages in 2026.
Irish GDP
Preliminary CSO figures indicate that Ireland’s GDP fell by 0.6% in Q4 2025 compared with Q3, primarily due to a contraction in the multinational-dominated industrial sector. The decline highlights the volatility in quarter-on-quarter economic activity driven by multinational firm performance.
