Three quarters in and our morning coffee is starting to tell an interesting story.

The Fitzgerald Power Latte Index tracks the price of a standard Starbucks Tall Latte across seven major global cities, giving us a light-hearted look at how prices are moving around the world.

And in Q3, there was finally a little more movement.

London pushed further ahead. San Francisco bounced back sharply. Dublin? Dublin didn’t budge.

So, what can we learn from our latest trip to the coffee counter?

Q3 2026: Prices Are Moving Again – Just Not Everywhere

After a relatively quiet Q2, our latest Latte Index shows prices beginning to move again.

London remains the most expensive city in the index, rising 4.11% from €6.00 to €6.25. San Francisco recorded the biggest quarterly increase, climbing 12.64% to €5.08, while New York edged up to €5.08.

Sydney and Tokyo also recorded modest increases, while Berlin remained unchanged at €4.90.

Across all seven cities, the average price increased from €4.87 in Q2 to €5.01 in Q3, bringing it broadly back to Q1 levels.

So, after a quarter where the story was how little prices moved, there’s a little more life in the coffee market. Although anyone hoping for noticeably cheaper caffeine may want to keep the kettle handy.

Dublin: €5.65. Again.

If consistency deserves a prize, Dublin may have earned it.

A Tall Latte remains €5.65 for the third consecutive quarter, leaving Dublin as the second most expensive city in our index behind London.

The lack of movement is arguably as interesting as an increase.

While prices elsewhere fluctuate, Dublin’s €5.65 benchmark appears remarkably sticky – a useful reminder of the persistent pricing environment facing both consumers and businesses in Ireland.

The coffee hasn’t become more expensive.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t become any cheaper either.

London Extends Its Lead

London already held the top spot. In Q3, it stretched its lead.

The price increased from €6.00 to €6.25, a quarterly rise of 4.11% and up from €5.93 when we began tracking prices in Q1.

That leaves a 60-cent gap between London and second-placed Dublin and reinforces London’s position as the most expensive city in the Latte Index.

Apparently breaking the €6 barrier in Q2 wasn’t enough.

San Francisco Bounces Back

The biggest movement of Q3 came from San Francisco.

After falling from €5.00 in Q1 to €4.51 in Q2, its latte price rebounded to €5.08 in Q3 – an increase of 12.64%. Its local price returned to $5.85, the same level recorded in Q1.

That context matters.

As we noted last quarter, the Latte Index uses platform-based pricing, so individual store prices, promotions and platform dynamics can influence quarterly movements. The San Francisco figures reinforce why one quarter’s movement is interesting, but the longer-term pattern tells us considerably more.

New York provides a good comparison. Its euro price increased slightly from €5.03 to €5.08, while its local price remained unchanged at $5.85.

Sometimes the exchange rate deserves some of the credit – or blame.

Elsewhere: Steady As It Goes

Away from the larger movements, much of the index remained relatively settled.

Berlin held at €4.90, while Sydney edged from €4.58 to €4.60 and Tokyo moved from €3.44 to €3.48.

Tokyo therefore remains comfortably the cheapest city in the index, while Berlin has now recorded €4.90 in all three quarters.

Taken together, the figures show why individual quarterly movements need to be viewed as part of a wider picture.

What Does Q3 Tell Us?

The Latte Index isn’t an official measure of inflation – nor are we suggesting economists abandon their spreadsheets for coffee menus just yet.

But everyday prices can provide a useful window into the pressures being felt by consumers and businesses.

After very little movement in Q2, the average price across our seven cities has risen again. Yet the picture isn’t uniform: some markets are moving, others remain almost stubbornly consistent.

For Irish businesses, Dublin’s three-quarter run at €5.65 is perhaps the most interesting example.

Prices don’t necessarily need to keep rising for cost pressures to remain significant. Sometimes the fact that they aren’t coming back down tells its own story.

Looking Ahead

Three quarters down, and a few patterns are beginning to emerge.

London continues to pull away at the top.

Dublin refuses to move.

San Francisco has returned to where it started.

And Tokyo remains the place to go if your economic strategy is based entirely around finding a reasonably priced latte.

We’ll be back with the Q4 Fitzgerald Power Latte Index to see whether prices finally begin to settle – or whether there’s another surprise brewing.

Because sometimes the economy is easier to understand when it’s served in a cardboard cup.

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Every quarter we’re inundated with economic data. Inflation. Interest rates. GDP. Consumer confidence.

They’re all essential measures of economic health, but they don’t always tell us how those trends are being felt in everyday life. So, we decided to start somewhere a little more familiar.

The price of a Monday morning latte.

Welcome to the Fitzgerald Power Latte Index.

Each quarter, we’ll track the cost of a standard Starbucks Tall Latte across seven major global cities. It’s our own light-hearted take on the famous Big Mac Index – but beneath the foam is a surprisingly useful snapshot of consumer prices, operating costs and inflationary pressure.

No, we’re not suggesting the European Central Bank swaps inflation reports for flat whites. But sometimes the smallest purchases tell us the biggest stories.

Q2 2026: The Story Isn’t Higher Prices – It’s That They Haven’t Fallen

The headline this quarter isn’t another surge in prices. It’s something arguably more interesting. Despite signs that wholesale coffee markets have begun to stabilise after two years of volatility, consumers are seeing very little relief when they reach the till.

Across the seven cities in our index, prices barely moved.

London remains the most expensive city for a latte at €6.00, nudging above the €6 mark for the first time, while Dublin holds steady at €5.65. Elsewhere, Berlin is unchanged, Sydney records only a modest increase and Tokyo remains comfortably the lowest-priced city.

The good news?

Your coffee probably didn’t get more expensive this quarter.

The bad news?

It didn’t get any cheaper either.

For businesses, that’s telling us something important.

The cost of coffee beans is no longer the biggest challenge. Labour, rent, insurance, utilities and operating costs continue to outweigh any easing in commodity prices. Businesses aren’t cutting prices because, quite simply, they still can’t afford to.

Dublin: Still Paying Global Prices

At €5.65, Dublin remains the second most expensive city in our index, sitting just behind London.

For a city of its size, that’s remarkable.

Dublin continues to price like a global capital, reflecting the significant cost pressures facing Irish businesses. Commercial rents remain high, wage costs continue to rise and strong consumer demand allows premium pricing to hold.

Or, put another way… It turns out we’re not just paying premium prices for housing.

The consistency is perhaps the most interesting finding. Despite signs that global commodity prices have started to settle, Dublin’s average latte price hasn’t moved in two consecutive quarters.

That suggests businesses have very little room to reduce prices, even where some input costs begin to ease.

The US: The Quarter’s Biggest Surprise

If there was one unexpected development in Q2, it came from across the Atlantic.

New York fell from €5.60 to €5.03, while San Francisco dropped from €5.00 to €4.51.

Importantly, those reductions are reflected in both euro and local currency, suggesting the movement isn’t simply the result of exchange rate fluctuations.

Before we all start booking flights for cheaper coffee, however, it’s worth exercising a little caution.

The Latte Index uses platform-based pricing, meaning quarter-on-quarter movements can sometimes reflect individual store pricing, promotional activity or platform dynamics rather than a structural shift across the wider market.

In other words, it’s an interesting signal – not yet a trend.

Local Costs Are Now Driving Prices

One of the clearest themes emerging from the Latte Index is that local operating costs now matter more than global coffee prices.

The disruption to coffee supply chains in Brazil and Vietnam pushed wholesale prices sharply higher over the past two years. Those increases have now largely worked their way through to consumers.

Today, the bigger challenge isn’t the coffee.

It’s everything that comes with serving it.

• Payroll.
• Rent.
• Energy.
• Insurance.

For many café owners, coffee beans have stopped being the biggest headache.

Everything else has politely stepped in to take their place.

That’s why cities such as Dublin and Berlin remain unchanged, London continues to edge upwards and Tokyo remains structurally cheaper thanks to its different labour and occupancy costs.

What This Means for Irish Businesses

While the Latte Index is intentionally light-hearted, the economic message behind it is serious.

The pressures facing cafés mirror those facing thousands of Irish businesses.

• Higher employment costs.
• Increasing commercial rents.
• Rising insurance premiums.
• Persistent operating expenses.

Many businesses are no longer increasing prices because costs are accelerating.

They’re maintaining prices because costs remain stubbornly high.

The result is a pricing environment where today’s “expensive” has quietly become tomorrow’s normal.

Consumers may not like paying over €5 for a coffee – but increasingly, they’re accepting it.

The real question is how long that acceptance lasts.

Looking Ahead

We’ll continue publishing the Fitzgerald Power Latte Index every quarter to see whether this pattern changes.

• Will easing commodity prices eventually find their way to consumers?
• Will businesses finally get some breathing room on operating costs?
• Or will today’s prices become the new benchmark?

We’ll be watching closely.

Because sometimes the clearest insight into the economy isn’t hidden in a 200-page report.

Sometimes it’s sitting in a cardboard cup beside your laptop.

About the Fitzgerald Power Latte Index

The Fitzgerald Power Latte Index tracks the price of a standard Starbucks Tall Latte across seven major international cities each quarter.

Prices are sourced via Uber Eats, converted to euro using European Central Bank exchange rates and analysed alongside local cost-of-living indicators to provide an accessible snapshot of consumer pricing and operating cost pressures.

While it’s not a formal measure of inflation, it offers a relatable perspective on how economic conditions are influencing everyday spending.

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At first glance, the price of a coffee might seem trivial. But when tracked consistently across global cities, it becomes a useful and relatable indicator of discretionary spending and cost-of-living pressures.

Introducing the Latte Index: Fitzgerald Power’s quarterly snapshot of the price of a standard Starbucks latte across key international cities, converted into euro using ECB exchange rates.

While simple in concept, the index offers a lens into broader economic dynamics: wage levels, rent pressures, currency movements, and, importantly, consumer tolerance for rising prices.

Q1 2026 Snapshot

In Q1 2026, London ranks as the most expensive city for a latte at €5.93, followed closely by Dublin (€5.65) and New York (€5.60). At the other end of the spectrum, Tokyo remains significantly more affordable at €3.48.

This spread highlights more than just pricing differences, it reflects structural cost variations across economies.

Dublin: Converging with High-Cost Cities

Dublin’s position is particularly notable.

Despite being a smaller market than London or New York, Dublin’s latte price sits firmly within the top tier. This suggests that cost pressures in the Irish economy are aligning with those seen in larger global cities.

Key drivers include:

• Persistently high commercial rents
• Rising wage expectations in hospitality
• Strong urban demand supporting premium pricing

In effect, Dublin is behaving like a high-cost global city – without necessarily having the same scale advantages.

The Role of Currency and Local Cost Structures

Currency movements also play a role.

For example, New York appears marginally cheaper than Dublin in euro terms, partly due to exchange rate effects. However, underlying local costs, particularly labour, remain high.

Similarly, Tokyo’s lower price point reflects both a weaker yen and a fundamentally different cost structure, where wages and rents remain comparatively subdued.

Consumer Behaviour: A Tipping Point?

Perhaps the most important insight from the Latte Index is not the price itself, but what it signals about consumer behaviour.

Across many developed economies, consumers have absorbed sustained increases in everyday costs — from coffee to energy. However, there are signs that this tolerance is being tested.

Recent protests linked to rising living costs and energy prices highlight a growing sensitivity to affordability. While a latte is a small discretionary purchase, it sits within a broader basket of spending that households are increasingly scrutinising.

The question is no longer whether prices can rise, but how far they can rise before behaviour changes.

Why It Matters

The Latte Index is not intended to be a definitive economic measure. Rather, it complements traditional indicators by grounding macroeconomic trends in something tangible and widely understood.

It provides:

• A relatable benchmark for discretionary spending.
• A comparative view across international markets.
• An early signal of pressure points in consumer affordability.

Looking Ahead

Fitzgerald Power will track the Latte Index on a quarterly basis, building a clearer picture of how consumer prices evolve over time – and what that means for businesses operating in Ireland and beyond.

Because sometimes, the most meaningful economic insights aren’t found in complex models…

…but in the price of your morning coffee.

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Irish Economy

Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) grew by 4.3% in Q1 2026, driven by strong multinational investment in AI, data centres and construction, despite early signs of slowing domestic activity.
More domestic indicators, including consumer spending, tax receipts and labour market data, point to moderating growth, while the Central Bank’s Business Cycle Indicator suggests economic momentum weakened towards the end of the quarter. Overall, the economy continues to expand but at a more measured pace, with underlying conditions softening.

Global Economy

According to Euromonitor, the global growth outlook for 2026 has been revised down to 2.9% as energy market disruption and geopolitical conflict drive higher inflation, trade costs and economic uncertainty. Advanced and emerging economies face differing levels of resilience, with energy security and supply chain strength becoming increasingly critical to sustaining growth.

Start-ups

Irish start-up activity remained robust in Q2 2026, with a record first half of the year reflecting sustained entrepreneurial confidence despite ongoing global economic uncertainty and cost pressures.

Housing Market

MyHome reports that Ireland’s housing market saw asking price inflation rise to 5% in Q2 2026, with persistent supply constraints and strong buyer competition outweighing affordability pressures despite improving housing supply and construction activity.

Irish GDP

Preliminary CSO figures indicate that GDP increased by 3.9% in Q2 2026, primarily driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Information & Communication.

Fitzgerald Power is a leading financial advisor to the Irish SME sector. We provide accountancy, corporate finance and taxation advice to businesses across the country. We’d love to hear from you so please get in touch if you think we can help.

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Produced by Fitzgerald Power in partnership with the Irish Pharmacy Union (IPU), Pharmacy Pulse is our quarterly look at the commercial and operational environment for community pharmacies across Ireland.

Summary Q2 2026:

Electronic Record Keeping

New legislation has provided for electronic record keeping for community pharmacies. The changes allow prescriptions transmitted electronically and a range of pharmacy records to be stored digitally, this should ultimately lead to a reduction in administrative burden, improved workflow efficiency and is fully aligned to the wider digitalisation of healthcare services in Ireland.

Pharmacist-Led Contraception Service

The Government published the Health (Provision of Contraception Prescribing Service in Retail Pharmacy Businesses) Bill 2026 in June. The legislation will allow pharmacists to provide repeat prescriptions for certain contraceptive medicines directly to eligible patients, improving access to women’s healthcare while further expanding the clinical role of community pharmacists within primary care.

EU E-Commerce Import Charges

From 1st July 2026, the European Union will introduce a new €3 customs charge on low-value imports from outside the EU. The reform aims to address concerns around unfair competition from international e-commerce platforms by removing favourable customs treatment for low-value goods. The change could benefit community pharmacies and other Irish retailers by narrowing the price gap between products sourced from overseas and those sold through local businesses.

Inflation and Cost of Living

Cost-of-living pressures remained a key issue for Irish households during Q2 2026. Consumer prices were 3.4% higher in June 2026 than a year earlier, with housing, electricity, gas, and other utility costs among the largest contributors to inflation. Rising living expenses continued to impact household disposable income and consumer spending, creating a challenging environment for both consumers and businesses.

US Trade Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty

Global economic uncertainty remained elevated during Q2 2026 as businesses and policymakers continued to assess the impact of tariff-related trade tensions and geopolitical instability. With Ireland’s economy heavily dependent on international trade and foreign direct investment, concerns persisted regarding the potential impact on exports, business investment and economic growth.

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The latest Funding Pulse Q1 2026 report offers an encouraging start to the year for Irish SMEs, with new lending picking up, funding costs easing and strong activity continuing across investment, venture capital and M&A.

Compiled in partnership with the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland (SBCI), our Funding Pulse report offers a clear, grounded view of how the funding landscape is evolving.

Highlights:

New SME lending gathers pace.

One of the clearest signals from Q1 is the increase in new lending.

Gross new SME lending reached €1.34 billion, up 12.9% on the same period last year. While outstanding SME credit remains slightly below Q1 2025 levels at €14.65 billion, the rise in new lending suggests businesses and lenders are showing renewed appetite for finance.

Funding costs ease.

There is also some welcome movement on the cost of borrowing.

The average interest rate on new SME loan drawdowns fell to 4.9% in Q1 2026, compared with 5.3% in Q4 2025. For businesses considering investment, expansion or acquisition, the cost of capital remains an important part of the conversation – and this quarter brought a more positive direction of travel.

Capital markets remain busy.

Bank lending is only part of the story.

A total of €5.4 billion was raised during Q1, with debt accounting for 76.5% of the total. There was significant activity across a range of sectors, including technology, life sciences, financial services and sustainable energy.

M&A was active too, with 136 deals completed during the quarter, four more than in the same period last year. Venture capital activity also remained strong, with a number of substantial funding rounds across Irish businesses.

What does it mean for Irish businesses?

The funding landscape is becoming increasingly varied. Traditional lending remains important, but businesses now have access to a much broader mix of options, from venture capital and private equity to alternative lenders and strategic investment.

That makes choosing the right funding route just as important as securing the funding itself.

For business owners thinking about growth, acquisition or investment in 2026, understanding what is happening across the wider market can help inform those decisions.

Read the full Funding Pulse Q1 2026 report for the latest data and analysis on SME lending, funding costs, venture capital, investment and M&A in Ireland.

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Irish Economy

Quarterly National Accounts data show strong investment growth drove a rebound in Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) in 2025, rising 4.9% for the year and 6.7% in Q4, marking a clear acceleration from 2024, largely driven by domestic construction and multinational-led investment, alongside gains in software and R&D. However, broader indicators point to moderating momentum, with slower jobs growth, weaker domestic sector output, and the Central Bank’s Business Cycle Indicator suggesting activity softened slightly from mid-2025.

Global Economy

According to Euromonitor, the global economy remains resilient, supported by easing inflation, accommodative policy and strong technology investment, though growth is set to ease slightly to 3.1% in 2026 amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Advanced economies face constrained growth while developing markets lead expansion, with moderating inflation providing support but persistent risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions and structural pressures on prices.

Start-ups

Company start-ups rose 14% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by strong sectoral and regional growth, signalling continued entrepreneurial confidence despite a more cautious outlook reflected in declining commercial judgments and fewer first-time directors.

Housing Market

MyHome reports, Ireland’s housing market is showing moderating price growth, with asking price inflation easing to 4.7% amid affordability pressures and slower mortgage activity, though constrained supply and strong demand continue to sustain competition.

Irish GDP

Preliminary CSO figures indicate that GDP declined by 2.0% in Q1 2026, primarily driven by a contraction in the multinational-dominated industrial sector.

Fitzgerald Power is a leading financial advisor to the Irish SME sector. We provide accountancy, corporate finance and taxation advice to businesses across the country. We’d love to hear from you so please get in touch if you think we can help.

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Summary Q1 2026:

Irish Economy

The Central Bank released its forecast for domestic economic growth over the next three years, with modified domestic demand (MDD) – a measure of economic performance that accounts for the distorting effects of multinational firms – estimated at 4.9% in 2025, and expected to grow by 2.4%, 2.8%, and 3.4% in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively.

Medicine Supply and Pricing Agreement

The Irish Pharmaceutical Healthcare Association (IPHA) and Medicines for Ireland (MFI) have in principle reached a new Framework Agreement on the Supply and Pricing of Medicine with the
Government, replacing the existing framework agreement which has been in place since 2021. The new agreement will run until 31st December 2029.

Mergers & Acquisitions

Fitzgerald Power released a pharmacy sector Mergers & Acquisitions Report in Q1 2026, which estimated 98 pharmacy sector transactions over the 36-month period from 2023 to 2025. Data from this report is included in a later section of this report and shows a healthy mergers and acquisitions market in the sector.

Global Economy

A global energy crisis is developing following the closing of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war between the United States and Israel, and Iran. The conflict could impact up to 15%-20% of the global supply of oil, and potentially lead to a global oil supply shock, economic recession and food crisis.

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Funding Pulse is our quarterly report on the key trends shaping SME funding across Ireland. Compiled in partnership with the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland (SBCI), it offers a clear, grounded view of how the funding landscape is evolving.

Our second edition, Q4 2025, is here – providing a timely end-of-year perspective. It highlights a more cautious lending environment, with borrowing softening and costs edging higher, while strong deposit growth and continued capital markets activity point to well-capitalised businesses taking a more measured approach.

Here are three highlights from the report:

• Lending slows as caution sets in. SME lending eased in Q4, with €1.03bn advanced during the quarter and total outstanding credit falling to €15.7bn – continuing the downward trend through 2025.
• Cost of funding ticks upward. The average interest rate on new SME loans rose to 5.3%, up from the previous quarter and reflecting tighter funding conditions.
• Capital markets remain highly active. Over €6bn was raised in Q4, driven largely by debt issuance, alongside continued momentum in sectors such as energy, aviation and life sciences.

For more detail on these trends, and the full breakdown across lending, deposits, venture and M&A activity, you can read the complete report here.

Whether you’re running a growing business, funding one, or advising those who do, Funding Pulse is built to give you clarity and confidence as you plan what’s next.

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Irish Economy

The Central Bank raised its forecast for domestic economic growth, with modified domestic demand (MDD) – a measure of economic performance that accounts for the distorting effects
of multinational firms – expected to grow by 3.9% this year, up from a forecast of 2.9% three months ago.

Common Conditions Service

Under a new Common Conditions Service (CCS), Pharmacists will have the ability to advise and treat eight common and self-limiting conditions in pharmacies and to provide appropriate treatment. This expansion is part of a broader policy shift towards an enhanced role for community pharmacy in improving access to care.

Transparency of Medicines Pricing and Fees for Pharmacy Services

All pharmacies must display information about the cost of all professional services and range of fees by the end of 2025 and start of 2026. This guidance is to enable patients to make more informed decisions about their health and treatment.

US Medicine Prices

Under a most favoured nation pricing policy executive order, the United States President suggested he will change US drug pricing policy by tying what the US pays for prescription drugs
to the lowest prices paid by other developed countries. If successful, this is expected to increase prices in Europe, where pharmaceutical companies would be expected to push back on European governments to raise the prices they pay.

Global Economy

The global economy maintained steady but low growth in Q4 2025 due to easing inflation, continued consumer spending, and policy-driven demand from early 2025 until the end of the year. Global GDP growth for the year was c. 2.6%, slightly below IMF projections, with inflation falling from 5.8% to 5.3%.

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