Lessons from the month of JulyOh my my my… From Brat summer to chaos in the Oval Office, this wet and wild month has brought in a number of big news stories. Here’s the best of the bunch. 1. Bye-den.President Joe Biden made headlines this month when he decided to pull himself out of the forthcoming presidential election, making him the first president to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson mid-Vietnam War in 1968. The announcement was the latest jolt to a tumultuous campaign for the White House, coming a week after the attempted assassination of Trump at a Pennsylvania rally.Trump, of course, led the revolt against Sleepy Joe, insisting he was no longer fit for office in his elderly state (for context, three years separate the pair) while young, hip Democrats such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez insisted their undying support for Biden. “Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race and I support him,” she told reporters at the time.Between then and now, Kamala Harris has taken the current president’s running place to the joy of young, progressive voters. As Megan Thee Stallion ended her set at a campaign rally for Harris in Atlanta last week, the 29-year-old rapper called out to the packed arena: “We about to make history with the first female president! The first black female president!”With fewer than 100 days to go until November’s presidential election, Harris’s candidacy has injected a heady new energy into a Democratic Party that feared Trump would dominate once more. And if Paddy Power’s current odds are anything to go by… we would be seeing a Madame President much sooner than we think .2. Revolut is going for gaffs.According to the head of the group’s operations across Europe, Fintech firm Revolut–the one we use to buy rounds and share food shops–is getting into the mortgage game. “We’re very keen to get mortgages launched next year in Ireland,” Joe Heneghan, chief executive of Revolut Europe, told The Irish Times early last month after the group published its annual report for 2023. “The market is attractive.”The move is set to be a big one for the market and one that will likely shape up the industry for both banks and clients alike. And in a world where drawdowns by mover-purchasers are falling by significant numbers… it seems like anything can happen from here.Revolut, cofounded by Nikolay Storonsky and Vlad Yatsenko in 2015, took home a $428 million (€398 million) profit last year as revenues soared 95% to $2.2 billion.Nowhere has the group been more successful in making inroads into a market than the Republic of Ireland, where it had built up a customer base of 2.7 million as of last December and has long since become a verb. The company says it is on track to hit three million users this year, equivalent to almost three-quarters of people over the age of 18 living in the State. In a country where lengthy mortgage application projects are offputting and approval is hard to come by, Revolut’s entry will certainly alter existing dynamics.Last summer, the company also launched car insurance in Ireland – giving drivers the option of reducing their premiums by installing tracking software.3. Steady times for inflation and unemployment.Irish economy prices have increased by 1.5% in the past 12 months, according to the Central Statistics Office with volatile food and energy prices among the main contributors. That said, food prices are estimated to be unchanged in the past month and energy prices are also estimated to have remained unchanged in July.In its quarterly economic bulletin published last month, the Central Bank said it expects headline and core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, to “hover around 2% this year and next”, close to the European Central Bank’s 2% annual target and corresponding broadly with the path for eurozone inflation.Meanwhile, unemployment in the Irish economy too remains much the same. While figures edged higher for the fifth month in a row in July, they remained close to the record low of 4%, according to the CSO. (Economists consider an unemployment rate of 4% or less in the Irish labour market as tantamount to full employment.)4. The outage seen across the world.Where were you on July 19th, the day of the Microsoft outage? Hopefully not on a plane, train or WFH – as everything sort of went to pot for a few hours.The major IT outage that grounded airlines, disrupted financial services and hit media groups globally was understood to be down to two separate problems: first an Azure issue and second, a problem caused by an update to the CrowdStrike security software that caused an issue with Microsoft Windows software.Though it was fixed rather quickly, the whole debacle added a further dose of uncertainty for investors already on the edge of this tech rotation. As well as this, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index lost 0.5%, falling for a fifth day, on track for the longest losing streak since October.5. M&A activity. Four of the largest US private equity groups deployed more than $160bn in the latest quarter as they ramped up investment ahead of an expected dealmaking revival. Ares, Apollo, Blackstone and KKR said they had invested a combined $162bn between April and June, with executives saying they were readying for an increase in buyout and merger activity.Optimism reigned as the deal freeze we have seen in recent months showed signs of thawing, with buyout activity up by 28% so far this year to $471bn, according to LSEG.Closer to home, the value of the Irish M&A market has more than tripled this year on the back of eight deals, each worth more than €250m. William Fry’s half-year report, prepared in conjunction with Mergermarket, shows there were 185 M&A deals in the first six months of 2024, and while there was a 20% decline from the same period in 2023, the value of deals made up this increase.Some of the most recent examples include:Netherlands-headquartered Coolworld Rentals has completed the acquisition of the Renatus- backed Meath-based CRS Group, a leading provider of cold storage in Ireland and the UK. (Brothers John and Patrick Tyrell, who are the sons of CRS founder Paul Tyrell, will become shareholders in Coolworld as a result.)Storm Technology, one of Ireland’s leading Microsoft business technology consultancies, has been acquired by UK IT services and cybersecurity provider Littlefish. Storm employs 160 people and assists Irish organisations across the private and public sectors with their digital transformation.Paramount Global, whose movies include Titanic and The Godfather, has agreed to merge with independent film studio Skydance Media – parting from the Redstone empire after three decades.And finally, Shannon Airport has partnered with Clare County Council to become home to Ireland’s first solar farm to be located within an airfield. The council granted planning permission for the installation of a 1.2MW photovoltaic solar farm on a 5.5-acre site within the airfield at Shannon Airport – making the space, and industry, a little greener.6. Just in time for Christmas…Property giant Hammerson is selling its fashion outlets business, which includes a large stake in outlet space Kildare Village, to a private equity firm backed by luxury goods group LVMH for the mighty sum of £600 million (€712.4 million).The firm, L Catteron, is buying the Hammerson Select Retail unit, which owns a series of stakes in 12 centres across Europe. This includes 41% in the designer outlet, which opened in 2007.Meanwhile, in other shopping news, the owners of Dundrum Town Centre are close to refinancing €600 million of loans secured against it with a group of lenders led by Rothesay, the UK pensions specialist, according to market sources.Hammerson is also involved here, boasting shared ownership of the 140,000sq m (1.5 million square feet) centre with Pimco, an investment unit of German insurance giant Allianz. They said last month that it is at an “advanced stage of refinancing” the loans and expects to sign a new facility in early August. The loans fall due in September.In summary:Well… that was quite a month, whatever way you cut it. It seems to carry on with the theme of this year, that the best entertainment is actually news-based.Just as the long build up to Christmas can be infinitely more joyful and less stressful than the day itself, so too does this period feel like a respite before the chaos of the US presidential election ramps up. Take, for example, the lazy summer evenings we’re having, the buzz around the multi-award-winning Team Ireland, and that luxury fashion house Dolce and Gabbana has, quite seriously, released a perfume for dogs. Oh, we will wish for this time in months to come!To be quite serious, though, it does sort of feel like things are about to fall down around us; riots are swelling in the UK, anti-immigrant rhetoric can be found all across Ireland, and yet the instigators of same – the kind who tell people who ‘fight with their chest,’ and ‘take it like a man,’ cower behind fake profile pictures, and undisclosed surnames. Thankfully, these numbers are small, even if they are loud. All in all, the experience of watching historic events happen over and over again can feel rather unsettling. Especially when our most recent politicians have been put toe-to-toe with lettuce. Thank god, then, that the Irish people have a small few they can rely on: Kellie Harrington, Mona McSharry, Daniel Wiffen, Rhys McClenaghan and the “pull like a dog,” rowers who have taken home gold for an astonishing second time. Let’s hope they run for president.See you next month!Our team is dedicated to providing you and your business with the absolute best business advice out there. We approach each and every case from a fresh perspective, working with you to find tailored solutions that leave your business feeling stronger than ever. With our expert analysis, we translate figures into a language you can understand. Using timely, reliable advice, our experienced team of experts devise sophisticated plans to encourage cost efficiency and growth. To find out more, contact our team at Fitzgerald Power today.
