Market Pulse Report Q3 2024 - Fitzgerald Power

Market Pulse is an analysis of the key trends in the SME sector, prepared by Fitzgerald Power on a quarterly basis. Check it out here.

Irish Economy

Revised data shows the Irish economy grew by 5% in 2023, surpassing its long-term potential rate, with domestic sectors expanding by 6.1%. Strong consumer spending, low unemployment, and a rebound in pharmaceutical exports are driving growth, though careful management is needed to prevent overheating. Modified Domestic Demand is forecast to grow by 2.1% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, according to The Central Bank of Ireland.

Inflation

The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.7% in September 2024, down from 2.2% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3%. In September 2024, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services, followed by food, alcohol & tobacco, non-energy industrial goods and energy.

Global Economy

The global economy showed resilience in early 2024, driven by strong private consumption, with moderating inflation and expected interest rate cuts supporting steady growth into 2025. The OECD expects global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.

Labour Market

Employment growth was notably stronger in Q2 2024 relative to recent quarters and has prompted an upward revision in annual growth projections for 2024. Public sector jobs, especially in health, and non-Irish citizens driving 57% of the growth, were key contributors. High demand for foreign labour continues, particularly in health and ICT, though employment growth is expected to moderate moving forward. The unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% this year and to remain below 5% over the forecast horizon.